Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co.,Ltd (002267.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.30 - $120.58$55.26
Multi-Stage$14.43 - $15.75$15.08
Blended Fair Value$35.17
Current Price$8.12
Upside333.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.18%13.48%0.490.300.600.200.200.100.300.150.200.15
YoY Growth--61.92%-50.00%200.00%0.00%100.00%-66.67%100.00%-25.00%33.33%9.37%
Dividend Yield--6.00%4.57%8.28%3.18%3.03%1.72%3.47%2.16%2.13%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)674.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)576.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.9984.3750.62
Cash Retained (M)98.6798.6798.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.99-84.37-50.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)-36.3214.3048.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,112.131,112.131,112.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.39%6.39%7.39%
Fair Value$25.30$55.26$120.58
Upside / Downside211.60%580.58%1,384.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)674.94718.10764.01812.86864.84920.13947.74
Payout Ratio85.38%86.31%87.23%88.15%89.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)576.27619.75666.44716.56770.36828.12876.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.39%6.39%7.39%
Year 1 PV (M)571.54576.97582.39
Year 2 PV (M)566.78577.59588.50
Year 3 PV (M)562.00578.15594.61
Year 4 PV (M)557.20578.65600.71
Year 5 PV (M)552.38579.09606.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,241.0013,881.2014,545.93
Equity Value (M)16,050.9116,771.6417,518.95
Shares Outstanding (M)1,112.131,112.131,112.13
Fair Value$14.43$15.08$15.75
Upside / Downside77.74%85.72%94.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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