Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Vatti Corporation Limited (002035.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.61 - $11.37$8.66
Multi-Stage$12.35 - $13.56$12.94
Blended Fair Value$10.80
Current Price$6.23
Upside73.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.56%15.14%0.300.110.110.150.360.310.230.130.170.17
YoY Growth--181.74%-0.67%-29.44%-57.71%16.45%33.96%75.89%-23.86%-0.13%134.93%
Dividend Yield--4.14%1.78%1.53%2.78%4.63%2.80%1.50%0.91%1.49%2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)436.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)185.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.3354.5832.75
Cash Retained (M)185.80185.80185.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.33-54.58-32.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.46131.21153.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)831.23831.23831.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$6.61$8.66$11.37
Upside / Downside6.10%39.06%82.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)436.66441.38446.16450.98455.86460.79474.62
Payout Ratio57.45%63.96%70.47%76.98%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.86282.31314.41347.17380.60414.71439.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)262.59265.22267.84
Year 2 PV (M)272.03277.49283.01
Year 3 PV (M)279.39287.85296.48
Year 4 PV (M)284.91296.47308.37
Year 5 PV (M)288.76303.48318.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,874.329,326.629,797.18
Equity Value (M)10,262.0010,757.1211,271.67
Shares Outstanding (M)831.23831.23831.23
Fair Value$12.35$12.94$13.56
Upside / Downside98.16%107.72%117.66%

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