Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co., Ltd. (001318.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.69 - $3.81$3.24
Multi-Stage$4.17 - $4.57$4.37
Blended Fair Value$3.81
Current Price$13.76
Upside-72.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-21.47%0.00%0.160.150.000.540.340.540.310.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.67%3,211.61%-99.17%58.56%-36.07%70.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.25%0.03%3.98%2.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.3014.568.74
Cash Retained (M)65.6065.6065.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.30-14.56-8.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.3151.0456.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.76282.76282.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.69$3.24$3.81
Upside / Downside-80.44%-76.42%-72.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.48115.32114.16113.02111.89110.77114.09
Payout Ratio43.68%52.94%62.21%71.47%80.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.8861.0571.0280.7890.3499.69105.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)54.9455.5056.06
Year 2 PV (M)57.5258.7059.89
Year 3 PV (M)58.8760.6962.55
Year 4 PV (M)59.2561.7164.24
Year 5 PV (M)58.8561.9165.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)890.33936.69984.96
Equity Value (M)1,179.761,235.201,292.81
Shares Outstanding (M)282.76282.76282.76
Fair Value$4.17$4.37$4.57
Upside / Downside-69.68%-68.25%-66.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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