Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Yuexiu Financial Holdings Group Co., Ltd. (000987.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.08 - $141.97$133.04
Multi-Stage$23.15 - $25.33$24.22
Blended Fair Value$78.63
Current Price$7.83
Upside904.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.74%36.13%0.780.780.630.620.470.510.190.200.120.04
YoY Growth--0.00%22.98%1.93%33.83%-9.39%169.57%-4.79%65.83%237.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.26%13.75%9.63%10.54%6.04%10.33%3.14%3.58%1.67%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,585.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,278.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,307.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)717.08448.17268.90
Cash Retained (M)1,307.181,307.181,307.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-717.08-448.17-268.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)590.11859.011,038.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,022.635,022.635,022.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$83.08$133.04$141.97
Upside / Downside961.04%1,599.15%1,713.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,585.393,818.444,066.644,330.974,612.494,912.305,059.67
Payout Ratio63.54%68.83%74.12%79.42%84.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,278.212,628.353,014.393,439.513,907.164,421.074,680.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,451.092,474.322,497.56
Year 2 PV (M)2,621.502,671.442,721.84
Year 3 PV (M)2,789.482,869.552,951.15
Year 4 PV (M)2,955.033,068.683,185.56
Year 5 PV (M)3,118.203,268.813,425.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)102,349.08107,292.58112,425.28
Equity Value (M)116,284.38121,645.37127,206.57
Shares Outstanding (M)5,022.635,022.635,022.63
Fair Value$23.15$24.22$25.33
Upside / Downside195.68%209.32%223.46%

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