Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Energy Group Co., Ltd. (000883.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.42 - $54.71$51.27
Multi-Stage$8.38 - $9.16$8.77
Blended Fair Value$30.02
Current Price$4.55
Upside559.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.55%19.00%0.270.060.160.130.110.120.110.100.100.07
YoY Growth--328.35%-60.30%26.20%20.00%-9.09%10.00%9.89%0.00%39.61%44.18%
Dividend Yield--5.69%1.19%3.79%2.96%1.65%3.29%2.48%2.22%1.96%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,689.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,573.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)116.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)337.88211.17126.70
Cash Retained (M)116.33116.33116.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-337.88-211.17-126.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-221.55-94.85-10.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,141.046,141.046,141.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.42$51.27$54.71
Upside / Downside414.68%1,026.84%1,102.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,689.381,799.191,916.132,040.682,173.332,314.592,384.03
Payout Ratio93.11%92.49%91.87%91.25%90.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,573.051,664.091,760.331,862.041,969.532,083.142,205.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,547.981,562.651,577.33
Year 2 PV (M)1,523.241,552.261,581.54
Year 3 PV (M)1,498.831,541.861,585.70
Year 4 PV (M)1,474.741,531.451,589.79
Year 5 PV (M)1,450.971,521.051,593.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,993.3546,118.2448,324.46
Equity Value (M)51,489.1153,827.5156,252.63
Shares Outstanding (M)6,141.046,141.046,141.04
Fair Value$8.38$8.77$9.16
Upside / Downside84.27%92.64%101.32%

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