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Definitive Analysis

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Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. (000686.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.56 - $8.44$6.92
Multi-Stage$12.05 - $13.25$12.64
Blended Fair Value$9.78
Current Price$8.67
Upside12.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.44%-0.13%0.100.450.470.530.570.540.520.610.220.07
YoY Growth---77.46%-3.34%-10.86%-7.83%4.86%3.87%-14.31%171.97%237.23%-35.54%
Dividend Yield--1.30%6.53%6.91%6.79%6.61%6.56%5.07%7.77%1.88%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,466.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)900.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)566.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)293.33183.33110.00
Cash Retained (M)566.00566.00566.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-293.33-183.33-110.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)272.67382.67456.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,294.072,294.072,294.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-2.13%-1.13%-0.13%
Fair Value$5.56$6.92$8.44
Upside / Downside-35.84%-20.24%-2.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,466.651,450.141,433.821,417.691,401.741,385.961,427.54
Payout Ratio61.41%67.13%72.85%78.56%84.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)900.65973.441,044.471,113.791,181.411,247.371,320.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-2.13%-1.13%-0.13%
Year 1 PV (M)901.62910.83920.04
Year 2 PV (M)896.04914.45933.04
Year 3 PV (M)885.01912.42940.38
Year 4 PV (M)869.49905.57942.77
Year 5 PV (M)850.30894.64940.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,239.7524,451.4825,713.23
Equity Value (M)27,642.2228,989.3930,390.27
Shares Outstanding (M)2,294.072,294.072,294.07
Fair Value$12.05$12.64$13.25
Upside / Downside38.98%45.75%52.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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