Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.,Ltd (000672.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.05 - $162.51$152.29
Multi-Stage$25.87 - $28.28$27.05
Blended Fair Value$89.67
Current Price$11.02
Upside713.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.36%12.76%0.570.490.800.800.830.400.180.120.110.13
YoY Growth--16.07%-38.02%-0.82%-2.97%106.05%128.99%41.00%8.37%-11.34%-24.90%
Dividend Yield--7.55%6.63%6.79%4.42%4.55%2.46%1.78%1.22%1.25%2.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)751.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)690.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.2193.8856.33
Cash Retained (M)60.5560.5560.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.21-93.88-56.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)-89.66-33.334.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)915.91915.91915.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.040.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.040.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.13%6.13%7.13%
Fair Value$58.05$152.29$162.51
Upside / Downside426.79%1,281.95%1,374.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)751.03797.05845.90897.74952.761,011.151,041.48
Payout Ratio91.94%91.55%91.16%90.78%90.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)690.48729.71771.15814.93861.17910.03963.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.13%6.13%7.13%
Year 1 PV (M)679.89686.36692.82
Year 2 PV (M)669.45682.24695.16
Year 3 PV (M)659.15678.14697.49
Year 4 PV (M)649.00674.05699.82
Year 5 PV (M)639.00669.97702.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,397.9221,386.7022,413.45
Equity Value (M)23,694.4124,777.4625,900.88
Shares Outstanding (M)915.91915.91915.91
Fair Value$25.87$27.05$28.28
Upside / Downside134.75%145.48%156.61%

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