Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

CNPC Capital Company Limited (000617.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.17 - $13.16$8.78
Multi-Stage$10.46 - $11.48$10.96
Blended Fair Value$9.87
Current Price$10.50
Upside-6.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.13%50.56%0.220.260.280.340.360.410.370.140.000.27
YoY Growth---17.30%-8.18%-16.30%-5.94%-12.39%10.41%166.88%4,914.46%-98.96%7,353.64%
Dividend Yield--3.38%4.54%4.07%6.65%4.49%5.92%3.65%1.46%0.02%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,306.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,396.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,910.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)861.39538.37323.02
Cash Retained (M)1,910.201,910.201,910.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-861.39-538.37-323.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,048.811,371.831,587.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,665.2512,665.2512,665.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Fair Value$6.17$8.78$13.16
Upside / Downside-41.25%-16.40%25.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,306.944,407.374,510.134,615.294,722.904,833.034,978.02
Payout Ratio55.65%62.52%69.39%76.26%83.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,396.752,755.433,129.543,519.593,926.144,349.724,604.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)2,578.912,604.362,629.81
Year 2 PV (M)2,741.412,795.792,850.69
Year 3 PV (M)2,885.582,971.863,059.83
Year 4 PV (M)3,012.683,133.383,257.66
Year 5 PV (M)3,123.893,281.113,444.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,080.86124,023.46130,202.93
Equity Value (M)132,423.34138,809.94145,445.53
Shares Outstanding (M)12,665.2512,665.2512,665.25
Fair Value$10.46$10.96$11.48
Upside / Downside-0.42%4.38%9.37%

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