Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Northeast Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (000597.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.47 - $50.82$39.63
Multi-Stage$11.17 - $12.25$11.70
Blended Fair Value$25.67
Current Price$5.33
Upside381.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.74%0.32%0.140.150.080.110.090.090.120.110.110.13
YoY Growth---6.21%100.79%-33.87%32.46%-7.84%-18.59%4.57%1.82%-15.09%-7.72%
Dividend Yield--2.83%3.15%1.28%1.80%1.89%1.88%1.91%2.42%1.85%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)374.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.9246.8228.09
Cash Retained (M)171.71171.71171.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.92-46.82-28.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.79124.88143.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,440.481,440.481,440.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$13.47$39.63$50.82
Upside / Downside152.70%643.56%853.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)374.58391.97410.17429.21449.14469.99484.09
Payout Ratio54.16%61.33%68.50%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.88240.39280.95324.76372.03422.99447.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)226.23228.42230.60
Year 2 PV (M)248.83253.66258.53
Year 3 PV (M)270.69278.60286.66
Year 4 PV (M)291.82303.25315.01
Year 5 PV (M)312.25327.61343.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,735.1315,459.8416,212.79
Equity Value (M)16,084.9516,851.3717,647.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,440.481,440.481,440.48
Fair Value$11.17$11.70$12.25
Upside / Downside109.50%119.48%129.85%

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