Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

CECEP Solar Energy Co.,Ltd. (000591.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.35 - $25.27$12.09
Multi-Stage$7.36 - $8.06$7.70
Blended Fair Value$9.90
Current Price$4.54
Upside118.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.12%8.88%0.300.130.110.100.080.080.060.020.150.20
YoY Growth--133.11%17.43%14.27%12.73%5.77%42.47%208.85%-87.70%-28.03%61.17%
Dividend Yield--6.72%2.40%1.59%1.09%1.23%2.47%1.31%0.38%2.72%3.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,059.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)668.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)391.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)211.97132.4879.49
Cash Retained (M)391.01391.01391.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-211.97-132.48-79.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.03258.52311.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,918.663,918.663,918.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Fair Value$7.35$12.09$25.27
Upside / Downside61.98%166.39%456.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,059.871,107.031,156.291,207.741,261.481,317.611,357.14
Payout Ratio63.11%68.49%73.86%79.24%84.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)668.87758.17854.09957.051,067.481,185.851,255.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)705.12711.94718.76
Year 2 PV (M)738.76753.11767.60
Year 3 PV (M)769.90792.44815.42
Year 4 PV (M)798.65829.98862.23
Year 5 PV (M)825.13865.79908.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,003.7126,235.8027,515.98
Equity Value (M)28,841.2730,189.0631,588.03
Shares Outstanding (M)3,918.663,918.663,918.66
Fair Value$7.36$7.70$8.06
Upside / Downside62.11%69.69%77.55%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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