Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd. (000568.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$191.66 - $478.15$287.47
Multi-Stage$132.48 - $144.78$138.52
Blended Fair Value$212.99
Current Price$131.92
Upside61.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.13%16.43%5.624.443.352.161.651.631.300.940.800.83
YoY Growth--26.40%32.88%55.09%31.02%1.18%25.04%37.78%18.09%-3.20%-32.69%
Dividend Yield--4.33%2.32%1.31%1.16%0.73%2.21%1.93%1.66%1.90%3.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,642.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,188.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,454.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,528.471,580.29948.18
Cash Retained (M)10,454.0310,454.0310,454.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,528.47-1,580.29-948.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,925.568,873.749,505.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.101,469.101,469.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.396.046.47
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.396.046.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.887.537.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$191.66$287.47$478.15
Upside / Downside45.28%117.91%262.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,642.3413,464.0914,339.2615,271.3116,263.9417,321.1017,840.73
Payout Ratio17.31%31.85%46.39%60.92%75.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,188.314,287.986,651.369,303.8612,273.0815,588.9916,502.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,886.663,923.503,960.34
Year 2 PV (M)5,464.595,568.685,673.75
Year 3 PV (M)6,928.437,127.327,329.98
Year 4 PV (M)8,284.178,602.768,930.44
Year 5 PV (M)9,537.569,998.2310,476.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)160,527.25168,280.77176,331.05
Equity Value (M)194,628.66203,501.26212,702.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,469.101,469.101,469.10
Fair Value$132.48$138.52$144.78
Upside / Downside0.43%5.00%9.75%

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