Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Changhong Meiling Co., Ltd. (000521.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.04 - $126.95$118.97
Multi-Stage$19.24 - $21.05$20.13
Blended Fair Value$69.55
Current Price$7.13
Upside875.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.92%17.89%0.320.110.080.100.110.140.120.100.070.05
YoY Growth--185.03%38.57%-16.09%-11.69%-22.10%13.69%23.44%54.45%23.53%-15.06%
Dividend Yield--3.89%1.23%1.51%2.63%2.98%4.38%3.09%2.32%0.92%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)657.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)359.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)298.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)131.4582.1549.29
Cash Retained (M)298.16298.16298.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-131.45-82.15-49.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)166.72216.01248.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,029.581,029.581,029.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.04$118.97$126.95
Upside / Downside700.03%1,568.63%1,680.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)657.24699.96745.45793.91845.51900.47927.48
Payout Ratio54.63%61.71%68.78%75.85%82.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)359.07431.92512.72602.21701.16810.42857.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)401.96405.77409.58
Year 2 PV (M)444.06452.52461.06
Year 3 PV (M)485.38499.32513.51
Year 4 PV (M)525.94546.16566.97
Year 5 PV (M)565.73593.06621.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,386.7318,226.5119,098.44
Equity Value (M)19,809.8020,723.3321,670.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1,029.581,029.581,029.58
Fair Value$19.24$20.13$21.05
Upside / Downside169.85%182.30%195.21%

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