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Ping An Bank Co., Ltd. (000001.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.57 - $417.03$367.70
Multi-Stage$52.87 - $57.84$55.31
Blended Fair Value$211.50
Current Price$11.34
Upside1,765.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.02%30.35%1.050.410.350.310.290.160.160.170.110.10
YoY Growth--157.47%15.20%14.70%7.06%76.10%4.83%-10.54%63.86%10.11%30.53%
Dividend Yield--9.32%3.83%2.82%2.01%1.31%1.28%1.18%1.60%1.16%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43,118.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,648.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)28,470.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,623.605,389.753,233.85
Cash Retained (M)28,470.0028,470.0028,470.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,623.60-5,389.75-3,233.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)19,846.4023,080.2525,236.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20,562.2020,562.2020,562.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.831.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.57$367.70$417.03
Upside / Downside919.10%3,142.48%3,577.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43,118.0045,920.6748,905.5152,084.3755,469.8659,075.4060,847.66
Payout Ratio33.97%45.18%56.38%67.59%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,648.0020,745.8227,574.4635,203.1843,707.1353,167.8656,284.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19,200.9219,382.9219,564.92
Year 2 PV (M)23,620.5524,070.4524,524.60
Year 3 PV (M)27,909.7728,710.9629,527.34
Year 4 PV (M)32,071.4233,304.7934,573.41
Year 5 PV (M)36,108.2637,852.3039,663.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)948,161.79993,958.351,041,507.67
Equity Value (M)1,087,072.701,137,279.781,189,361.02
Shares Outstanding (M)20,562.2020,562.2020,562.20
Fair Value$52.87$55.31$57.84
Upside / Downside366.20%387.74%410.07%

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