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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.73 - $125.54$90.62
Multi-Stage$68.28 - $74.46$71.32
Blended Fair Value$80.97
Current Price$66.56
Upside21.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.73%29.32%2.662.642.460.571.122.021.270.950.850.59
YoY Growth--0.94%7.07%330.43%-48.89%-44.44%58.82%34.21%11.76%42.90%190.90%
Dividend Yield--4.15%2.46%1.83%0.36%0.64%3.63%1.31%0.71%0.85%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)136.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6021.6312.98
Cash Retained (M)37.0037.0037.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.60-21.63-12.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.4015.3824.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.1840.1840.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.380.60
LTM Dividend per Share3.393.393.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.380.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.443.773.98
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.73%4.73%5.73%
Fair Value$66.73$90.62$125.54
Upside / Downside0.26%36.14%88.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.00181.18189.74198.70208.09217.93224.46
Payout Ratio78.61%80.89%83.17%85.45%87.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)136.00146.55157.80169.78182.54196.13207.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.73%4.73%5.73%
Year 1 PV (M)133.07134.35135.64
Year 2 PV (M)130.10132.62135.17
Year 3 PV (M)127.10130.81134.60
Year 4 PV (M)124.08128.94133.94
Year 5 PV (M)121.06127.01133.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,107.772,211.352,318.97
Equity Value (M)2,743.192,865.092,991.49
Shares Outstanding (M)40.1840.1840.18
Fair Value$68.28$71.32$74.46
Upside / Downside2.59%7.14%11.87%

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