Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.25 - $2.97$2.62
Multi-Stage$4.82 - $5.32$5.07
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$12.24
Upside-68.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.71%-7.89%0.270.220.200.080.000.450.800.551.240.84
YoY Growth--20.00%11.11%157.14%0.00%-100.00%-43.94%45.34%-55.83%47.56%37.92%
Dividend Yield--3.33%3.47%7.24%2.66%0.00%85.91%18.86%11.05%20.02%14.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.556.593.96
Cash Retained (M)25.7425.7425.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.55-6.59-3.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.1919.1521.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.4189.4189.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate-9.89%-8.89%-7.89%
Fair Value$2.25$2.62$2.97
Upside / Downside-81.65%-78.57%-75.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.7448.0543.7739.8836.3333.1034.10
Payout Ratio51.20%58.96%66.72%74.48%82.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.0028.3329.2129.7029.8829.7931.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate-9.89%-8.89%-7.89%
Year 1 PV (M)25.6925.9826.27
Year 2 PV (M)24.0324.5725.11
Year 3 PV (M)22.1722.9123.68
Year 4 PV (M)20.2321.1422.08
Year 5 PV (M)18.2919.3320.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)320.83339.03358.05
Equity Value (M)431.24452.96475.60
Shares Outstanding (M)89.4189.4189.41
Fair Value$4.82$5.07$5.32
Upside / Downside-60.60%-58.61%-56.54%

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