Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Saraswanti Indoland Development Tbk (SWID.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.44 - $103.70$83.61
Multi-Stage$155.20 - $171.09$162.99
Blended Fair Value$123.30
Current Price$93.00
Upside32.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.091.090.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37,395.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,002.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)29,393.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,479.094,674.432,804.66
Cash Retained (M)29,393.1629,393.1629,393.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,479.09-4,674.43-2,804.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)21,914.0724,718.7326,588.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,385.025,385.025,385.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.074.594.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.074.594.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.566.086.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$66.44$83.61$103.70
Upside / Downside-28.56%-10.09%11.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37,395.4737,021.5136,651.3036,284.7935,921.9435,562.7236,629.60
Payout Ratio21.40%35.12%48.84%62.56%76.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,002.3113,001.7017,900.3022,699.6427,401.1932,006.4533,882.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12,119.6312,243.3012,366.97
Year 2 PV (M)15,553.8915,872.9416,195.22
Year 3 PV (M)18,385.9818,954.5819,534.78
Year 4 PV (M)20,688.3921,545.8322,429.64
Year 5 PV (M)22,525.9923,698.9824,920.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)746,504.52785,376.74825,851.69
Equity Value (M)835,778.41877,692.36921,298.63
Shares Outstanding (M)5,385.025,385.025,385.02
Fair Value$155.20$162.99$171.09
Upside / Downside66.89%75.26%83.96%

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