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Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$192.52 - $510.71$294.39
Multi-Stage$130.16 - $142.30$136.12
Blended Fair Value$215.25
Current Price$167.46
Upside28.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.96%6.02%1.111.081.050.990.960.960.950.880.780.70
YoY Growth--2.87%2.98%5.47%3.02%0.51%0.77%7.87%13.05%11.44%13.25%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.54%0.95%0.91%0.93%1.55%1.60%1.53%1.81%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)296.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.8743.0425.82
Cash Retained (M)296.96296.96296.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.87-43.04-25.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)228.10253.92271.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.9541.9541.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.446.056.46
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.446.056.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.577.187.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$192.52$294.39$510.71
Upside / Downside14.97%75.80%204.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.33366.71390.54415.93442.97471.76485.91
Payout Ratio13.76%29.00%44.25%59.50%74.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.36106.36172.83247.49331.12424.58449.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)96.5897.4998.41
Year 2 PV (M)142.49145.20147.94
Year 3 PV (M)185.27190.59196.01
Year 4 PV (M)225.08233.73242.64
Year 5 PV (M)262.05274.71287.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,549.264,768.994,997.13
Equity Value (M)5,460.735,710.725,969.98
Shares Outstanding (M)41.9541.9541.95
Fair Value$130.16$136.12$142.30
Upside / Downside-22.27%-18.71%-15.02%

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