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Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.59 - $3.93$3.22
Multi-Stage$3.97 - $4.33$4.15
Blended Fair Value$3.68
Current Price$56.36
Upside-93.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS2.11%0.00%0.340.000.170.200.210.300.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-15.32%-6.04%-30.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.46%0.00%0.42%0.51%0.77%1.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.838.655.19
Cash Retained (M)8.628.628.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.83-8.65-5.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.22-0.033.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)237.66237.66237.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Fair Value$2.59$3.22$3.93
Upside / Downside-95.40%-94.28%-93.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.1769.9470.7171.5072.2973.0975.28
Payout Ratio87.54%88.03%88.52%89.02%89.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.5561.5762.6063.6464.7065.7869.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Year 1 PV (M)55.8856.4356.99
Year 2 PV (M)51.5652.5953.64
Year 3 PV (M)47.5749.0150.48
Year 4 PV (M)43.8945.6747.51
Year 5 PV (M)40.5042.5644.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)703.03738.85776.12
Equity Value (M)942.43985.131,029.45
Shares Outstanding (M)237.66237.66237.66
Fair Value$3.97$4.15$4.33
Upside / Downside-92.96%-92.65%-92.31%

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