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Ratch Group Public Company Limited (RATCH-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.27 - $37.75$30.50
Multi-Stage$57.55 - $63.32$60.38
Blended Fair Value$45.44
Current Price$24.20
Upside87.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.56%1.601.601.701.601.601.601.601.601.511.51
YoY Growth---0.01%-5.88%6.23%0.00%0.01%0.02%0.01%5.71%0.01%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.34%5.71%4.41%3.83%3.29%2.96%2.84%3.23%3.17%3.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,576.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,479.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,097.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,115.36697.10418.26
Cash Retained (M)2,097.202,097.202,097.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,115.36-697.10-418.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)981.841,400.101,678.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,175.112,175.112,175.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.640.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.640.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.052.242.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.27$30.50$37.75
Upside / Downside0.30%26.04%56.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,576.805,520.905,465.565,410.775,356.525,302.835,461.91
Payout Ratio62.39%67.92%73.44%78.96%84.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,479.613,749.544,013.724,272.224,525.134,772.555,052.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,492.383,528.013,563.65
Year 2 PV (M)3,482.033,553.453,625.61
Year 3 PV (M)3,452.093,558.853,667.79
Year 4 PV (M)3,405.673,546.823,692.32
Year 5 PV (M)3,345.533,519.743,701.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,005.17113,629.39119,485.51
Equity Value (M)125,182.85131,336.27137,736.01
Shares Outstanding (M)2,175.112,175.112,175.11
Fair Value$57.55$60.38$63.32
Upside / Downside137.82%149.51%161.67%

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