Definitive Analysis
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Parex Resources Inc. (PXT.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.05 - $16.74$13.73
Multi-Stage$23.69 - $26.01$24.83
Blended Fair Value$19.28
Current Price$10.22
Upside88.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.131.190.760.480.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---5.47%57.21%58.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.12%7.40%4.09%2.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.3015.819.49
Cash Retained (M)17.4317.4317.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.30-15.81-9.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.861.627.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.3599.3599.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.020.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.101.101.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.020.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.111.18
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.05$13.73$16.74
Upside / Downside8.10%34.30%63.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.48125.22123.97122.73121.50120.29123.89
Payout Ratio86.22%86.97%87.73%88.49%89.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.05108.91108.76108.60108.43108.26114.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)100.72101.75102.78
Year 2 PV (M)93.0294.9396.86
Year 3 PV (M)85.9088.5691.27
Year 4 PV (M)79.3382.6186.00
Year 5 PV (M)73.2577.0681.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,921.782,021.852,126.05
Equity Value (M)2,354.002,466.772,583.99
Shares Outstanding (M)99.3599.3599.35
Fair Value$23.69$24.83$26.01
Upside / Downside131.84%142.95%154.49%

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