Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Onex Corporation (ONEX.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.94 - $30.39$26.81
Multi-Stage$71.89 - $80.08$75.89
Blended Fair Value$51.35
Current Price$82.34
Upside-37.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.86%3.07%0.320.340.360.390.410.390.350.310.280.27
YoY Growth---4.17%-7.69%-7.14%-3.45%3.57%12.00%13.64%10.00%5.26%11.76%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.45%0.78%0.58%0.65%1.07%0.61%0.43%0.39%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)434.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)413.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.8054.2532.55
Cash Retained (M)413.00413.00413.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.80-54.25-32.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)326.20358.75380.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)71.5071.5071.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.565.025.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.565.025.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.865.315.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-12.10%-11.10%-10.10%
Fair Value$22.94$26.81$30.39
Upside / Downside-72.15%-67.44%-63.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)434.00385.81342.98304.89271.04240.95248.18
Payout Ratio4.84%21.87%38.90%55.94%72.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.0084.38133.43170.54197.77216.85229.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-12.10%-11.10%-10.10%
Year 1 PV (M)78.3379.2380.12
Year 2 PV (M)114.99117.62120.28
Year 3 PV (M)136.45141.16145.97
Year 4 PV (M)146.89153.69160.73
Year 5 PV (M)149.52158.23167.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,513.684,776.355,051.11
Equity Value (M)5,139.875,426.285,725.54
Shares Outstanding (M)71.5071.5071.50
Fair Value$71.89$75.89$80.08
Upside / Downside-12.70%-7.83%-2.75%

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