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Matador Resources Company (MTDR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.35 - $393.36$225.75
Multi-Stage$100.05 - $109.35$104.62
Blended Fair Value$165.19
Current Price$44.93
Upside267.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.840.620.280.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--35.89%118.96%141.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%0.92%0.59%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)781.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)633.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)156.2497.6558.59
Cash Retained (M)633.12633.12633.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-156.24-97.65-58.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)476.88535.47574.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.99124.99124.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.824.284.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.824.284.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.005.475.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$147.35$225.75$393.36
Upside / Downside227.96%402.45%775.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)781.21831.99886.06943.661,005.001,070.321,102.43
Payout Ratio18.96%33.17%47.37%61.58%75.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.09275.93419.76581.13761.70963.291,019.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)250.59252.96255.34
Year 2 PV (M)346.19352.79359.44
Year 3 PV (M)435.26447.75460.48
Year 4 PV (M)518.10538.03558.52
Year 5 PV (M)595.04623.78653.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,360.4410,860.8511,380.42
Equity Value (M)12,505.6213,076.1613,667.82
Shares Outstanding (M)124.99124.99124.99
Fair Value$100.05$104.62$109.35
Upside / Downside122.69%132.85%143.38%

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