Definitive Analysis
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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$159.76 - $316.77$221.30
Multi-Stage$143.50 - $156.90$150.07
Blended Fair Value$185.69
Current Price$260.44
Upside-28.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.19%11.83%2.472.131.160.000.562.221.971.741.350.92
YoY Growth--16.18%82.87%0.00%-100.00%-74.51%12.71%12.66%28.88%47.83%13.45%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.85%0.70%0.00%0.38%2.96%1.54%1.28%1.44%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,611.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)715.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,896.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)522.20326.38195.83
Cash Retained (M)1,896.001,896.001,896.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-522.20-326.38-195.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,373.801,569.631,700.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)276.23276.23276.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.975.686.15
LTM Dividend per Share2.592.592.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.975.686.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.568.278.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Fair Value$159.76$221.30$316.77
Upside / Downside-38.66%-15.03%21.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,611.002,745.932,887.833,037.063,194.003,359.053,459.83
Payout Ratio27.38%39.91%52.43%64.95%77.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)715.001,095.831,514.101,972.682,474.613,023.153,200.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)994.891,004.441,013.99
Year 2 PV (M)1,248.021,272.101,296.41
Year 3 PV (M)1,476.241,519.171,562.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,681.291,746.791,814.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,864.791,956.032,050.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,372.6333,956.6335,602.03
Equity Value (M)39,637.8741,455.1543,340.33
Shares Outstanding (M)276.23276.23276.23
Fair Value$143.50$150.07$156.90
Upside / Downside-44.90%-42.38%-39.76%

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