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Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.02 - $78.42$60.85
Multi-Stage$59.11 - $64.48$61.75
Blended Fair Value$61.30
Current Price$122.10
Upside-49.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.99%15.87%3.443.353.313.203.130.802.540.460.411.65
YoY Growth--2.86%1.26%3.31%2.24%292.61%-68.63%457.90%11.21%-75.24%109.67%
Dividend Yield--2.34%1.74%1.84%2.08%1.85%0.86%2.32%0.42%0.48%2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.4517.1610.29
Cash Retained (M)13.4413.4413.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.45-17.16-10.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-14.01-3.723.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.110.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.543.543.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.40-0.110.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.143.433.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate2.26%3.26%4.26%
Fair Value$47.02$60.85$78.42
Upside / Downside-61.49%-50.16%-35.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.26141.73146.34151.11156.03161.11165.94
Payout Ratio90.21%90.17%90.12%90.08%90.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.82127.79131.89136.12140.49145.00153.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate2.26%3.26%4.26%
Year 1 PV (M)116.02117.15118.29
Year 2 PV (M)108.71110.85113.00
Year 3 PV (M)101.86104.88107.96
Year 4 PV (M)95.4599.24103.14
Year 5 PV (M)89.4493.8998.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,557.191,634.831,715.55
Equity Value (M)2,068.662,160.842,256.46
Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
Fair Value$59.11$61.75$64.48
Upside / Downside-51.59%-49.43%-47.19%

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