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Imperial Brands PLC (ITB.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.29 - $90.56$71.76
Multi-Stage$110.46 - $121.37$115.81
Blended Fair Value$93.78
Current Price$28.64
Upside227.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.77%1.23%1.481.501.511.492.002.111.911.751.581.44
YoY Growth---0.99%-0.61%1.15%-25.56%-4.93%10.02%9.69%10.25%10.09%9.57%
Dividend Yield--6.85%8.88%8.08%9.39%14.54%11.42%7.16%5.39%4.00%4.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,596.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,059.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)931.00581.88349.13
Cash Retained (M)2,059.002,059.002,059.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-931.00-581.88-349.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,128.001,477.131,709.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)875.48875.48875.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.291.691.95
LTM Dividend per Share2.972.972.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.291.691.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.254.654.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Fair Value$56.29$71.76$90.56
Upside / Downside96.56%150.57%216.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,655.004,665.924,676.874,687.844,698.834,709.864,851.15
Payout Ratio55.77%62.61%69.46%76.31%83.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,596.002,921.543,248.593,577.163,907.254,238.874,487.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Year 1 PV (M)2,709.932,737.242,764.55
Year 2 PV (M)2,795.042,851.662,908.84
Year 3 PV (M)2,854.822,942.003,030.93
Year 4 PV (M)2,892.403,010.773,132.73
Year 5 PV (M)2,910.623,060.263,215.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,540.9586,784.5091,200.82
Equity Value (M)96,703.77101,386.42106,253.85
Shares Outstanding (M)875.48875.48875.48
Fair Value$110.46$115.81$121.37
Upside / Downside285.68%304.36%323.77%

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