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Holcim Ltd (HOLN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$447.52 - $876.11$617.01
Multi-Stage$694.84 - $763.99$728.75
Blended Fair Value$672.88
Current Price$58.90
Upside1,042.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.28%13.99%2.832.552.402.202.200.582.152.181.640.76
YoY Growth--11.03%6.32%8.84%-0.16%280.12%-72.99%-1.65%33.33%114.39%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.99%3.17%4.07%4.86%3.97%1.64%4.27%4.17%2.77%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,419.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,714.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,705.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,083.801,927.381,156.43
Cash Retained (M)13,705.0013,705.0013,705.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,083.80-1,927.38-1,156.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,621.2011,777.6312,548.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)555.17555.17555.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share19.1321.2122.60
LTM Dividend per Share3.093.093.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share19.1321.2122.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.2224.3025.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Fair Value$447.52$617.01$876.11
Upside / Downside659.80%947.55%1,387.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,419.0015,771.6416,132.3416,501.3016,878.6917,264.7117,782.65
Payout Ratio11.12%26.89%42.67%58.45%74.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,714.004,241.456,883.629,644.4212,527.9115,538.2416,448.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Year 1 PV (M)3,950.493,989.494,028.49
Year 2 PV (M)5,971.576,090.066,209.72
Year 3 PV (M)7,792.628,025.718,263.41
Year 4 PV (M)9,428.049,805.9210,195.05
Year 5 PV (M)10,891.3211,439.6912,009.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)347,725.97365,233.65383,439.53
Equity Value (M)385,760.00404,584.52424,146.13
Shares Outstanding (M)555.17555.17555.17
Fair Value$694.84$728.75$763.99
Upside / Downside1,079.70%1,137.27%1,197.09%

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