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Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.21 - $198.10$113.69
Multi-Stage$51.08 - $55.79$53.39
Blended Fair Value$83.54
Current Price$42.44
Upside96.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.22%25.04%0.950.930.900.820.740.700.610.490.400.40
YoY Growth--1.94%3.61%9.52%11.08%5.23%14.71%26.41%20.52%1.97%287.83%
Dividend Yield--2.38%3.14%3.23%2.35%2.02%3.04%2.12%1.46%1.34%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.214.512.70
Cash Retained (M)24.9924.9924.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.21-4.51-2.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.7820.4822.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.4511.4511.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.551.791.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.551.791.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.752.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.21$113.69$198.10
Upside / Downside74.85%167.88%366.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.0638.4040.9043.5546.3849.4050.88
Payout Ratio30.69%42.55%54.41%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.0716.3422.2528.8736.2444.4647.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.8414.9815.12
Year 2 PV (M)18.3518.7019.05
Year 3 PV (M)21.6222.2422.87
Year 4 PV (M)24.6525.6026.58
Year 5 PV (M)27.4628.7930.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)478.18501.27525.25
Equity Value (M)585.11611.59639.05
Shares Outstanding (M)11.4511.4511.45
Fair Value$51.08$53.39$55.79
Upside / Downside20.36%25.80%31.45%

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