Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

DRDGOLD Limited (DRD.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$140.81 - $232.51$181.46
Multi-Stage$118.26 - $128.67$123.37
Blended Fair Value$152.42
Current Price$23.74
Upside542.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-5.25%49.75%1.532.601.831.822.282.010.000.150.180.90
YoY Growth---41.10%41.99%0.39%-19.91%13.53%0.00%-100.00%-16.60%-79.99%3,227.63%
Dividend Yield--6.45%16.42%9.19%18.48%15.26%7.44%0.00%4.11%4.33%10.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,276.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,335.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,941.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)655.35409.59245.76
Cash Retained (M)1,941.751,941.751,941.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-655.35-409.59-245.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,286.401,532.161,695.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)281.38281.38281.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.575.456.03
LTM Dividend per Share4.744.744.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.575.456.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3210.1910.77
WACC / Discount Rate12.48%12.48%12.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$140.81$181.46$232.51
Upside / Downside493.11%664.37%879.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,276.753,489.743,716.573,958.154,215.434,489.434,624.11
Payout Ratio40.74%50.59%60.44%70.30%80.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,335.001,765.572,246.482,782.453,378.604,040.494,277.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.48%12.48%12.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,554.941,569.671,584.41
Year 2 PV (M)1,742.431,775.621,809.12
Year 3 PV (M)1,900.671,955.232,010.83
Year 4 PV (M)2,032.562,110.732,191.13
Year 5 PV (M)2,140.762,244.162,351.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,904.9125,059.5226,258.33
Equity Value (M)33,276.2734,714.9436,205.34
Shares Outstanding (M)281.38281.38281.38
Fair Value$118.26$123.37$128.67
Upside / Downside398.14%419.68%441.99%

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