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Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (CRC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.14 - $17.41$14.03
Multi-Stage$26.74 - $29.44$28.06
Blended Fair Value$21.05
Current Price$21.90
Upside-3.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-31.93%0.00%0.550.480.300.402.043.790.390.350.300.00
YoY Growth--14.58%60.00%-25.00%-80.21%-46.30%875.84%10.00%17.37%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.22%1.37%0.68%1.01%5.46%13.54%0.92%0.84%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,957.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,618.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,339.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,391.55869.72521.83
Cash Retained (M)3,339.233,339.233,339.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,391.55-869.72-521.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,947.682,469.512,817.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,987.295,987.295,987.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.410.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.410.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.14$14.03$17.41
Upside / Downside-49.11%-35.94%-20.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,957.766,888.186,819.306,751.116,683.606,616.766,815.26
Payout Ratio52.01%59.61%67.20%74.80%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,618.534,105.744,582.865,050.025,507.385,955.086,304.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,827.883,866.943,906.00
Year 2 PV (M)3,983.544,065.254,147.79
Year 3 PV (M)4,092.534,219.104,348.25
Year 4 PV (M)4,161.124,333.584,511.35
Year 5 PV (M)4,194.894,413.324,640.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)139,843.29147,125.26154,707.46
Equity Value (M)160,103.26168,023.46176,261.62
Shares Outstanding (M)5,987.295,987.295,987.29
Fair Value$26.74$28.06$29.44
Upside / Downside22.10%28.14%34.43%

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