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Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$319.57 - $727.66$465.09
Multi-Stage$366.22 - $400.81$383.19
Blended Fair Value$424.14
Current Price$118.82
Upside256.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.50%4.65%6.513.240.000.000.822.673.572.582.083.57
YoY Growth--100.62%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-69.22%-25.18%38.22%24.01%-41.65%-13.57%
Dividend Yield--7.04%3.13%0.00%0.00%1.02%5.90%4.29%2.01%1.86%5.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)665.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)468.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)196.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)133.0483.1549.89
Cash Retained (M)196.63196.63196.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-133.04-83.15-49.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)63.59113.48146.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.3441.3441.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.542.743.55
LTM Dividend per Share11.3311.3311.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.542.743.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.8714.0814.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Fair Value$319.57$465.09$727.66
Upside / Downside168.95%291.43%512.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)665.21691.44718.71747.06776.52807.15831.36
Payout Ratio70.44%74.35%78.26%82.18%86.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)468.58514.10562.50613.90668.49726.43769.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Year 1 PV (M)475.45480.07484.68
Year 2 PV (M)481.08490.48499.96
Year 3 PV (M)485.57499.86514.43
Year 4 PV (M)488.99508.27528.11
Year 5 PV (M)491.42515.75541.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,718.0913,347.9314,002.48
Equity Value (M)15,140.6115,842.3616,570.71
Shares Outstanding (M)41.3441.3441.34
Fair Value$366.22$383.19$400.81
Upside / Downside208.21%222.50%237.33%

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