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Conduril - Engenharia, S.A. (CDU.LS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.57 - $23.21$19.87
Multi-Stage$49.58 - $54.72$52.10
Blended Fair Value$35.99
Current Price$32.00
Upside12.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-16.40%0.490.880.970.290.000.491.460.490.491.94
YoY Growth---44.44%-10.00%233.33%0.00%-100.00%-66.67%200.00%0.00%-75.00%-33.33%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.52%3.49%1.20%1.68%3.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.040.650.39
Cash Retained (M)1.621.621.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.04-0.65-0.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.570.971.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.851.851.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.520.66
LTM Dividend per Share1.941.941.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.520.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.252.472.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-6.34%-5.34%-4.34%
Fair Value$16.57$19.87$23.21
Upside / Downside-48.22%-37.89%-27.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.224.944.674.434.193.964.08
Payout Ratio69.00%73.20%77.40%81.60%85.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.603.623.623.613.593.573.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-6.34%-5.34%-4.34%
Year 1 PV (M)3.363.403.43
Year 2 PV (M)3.133.203.26
Year 3 PV (M)2.903.003.09
Year 4 PV (M)2.692.802.92
Year 5 PV (M)2.482.622.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)77.2381.4485.83
Equity Value (M)91.7996.45101.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1.851.851.85
Fair Value$49.58$52.10$54.72
Upside / Downside54.93%62.80%70.99%

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