Definitive Analysis
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Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$382.45 - $767.89$532.25
Multi-Stage$328.59 - $359.80$343.91
Blended Fair Value$438.08
Current Price$86.45
Upside406.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.70%0.00%0.740.750.570.000.090.340.290.130.000.00
YoY Growth---1.49%32.07%0.00%-100.00%-73.03%17.06%119.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.11%0.89%0.00%0.16%2.38%1.03%0.42%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,872.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,812.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)374.46234.04140.42
Cash Retained (M)1,812.011,812.011,812.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-374.46-234.04-140.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,437.541,577.971,671.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.3384.3384.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.0518.7119.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.0518.7119.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.7619.4320.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.26%5.26%6.26%
Fair Value$382.45$532.25$767.89
Upside / Downside342.40%515.67%788.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,872.301,970.712,074.302,183.332,298.092,418.882,491.45
Payout Ratio3.22%20.58%37.93%55.29%72.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.30405.50786.831,207.121,669.432,176.992,304.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.26%5.26%6.26%
Year 1 PV (M)368.15371.69375.22
Year 2 PV (M)648.57661.07673.69
Year 3 PV (M)903.37929.61956.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,134.271,178.421,223.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,342.901,408.551,476.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,312.7224,452.4325,636.27
Equity Value (M)27,709.9829,001.7630,342.13
Shares Outstanding (M)84.3384.3384.33
Fair Value$328.59$343.91$359.80
Upside / Downside280.09%297.81%316.20%

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