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Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company (BHRB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$167.38 - $446.84$256.45
Multi-Stage$115.35 - $125.98$120.57
Blended Fair Value$188.51
Current Price$61.69
Upside205.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS13.82%0.00%1.901.051.050.990.991.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--81.85%0.03%5.86%-0.23%-0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.39%1.91%1.42%1.77%2.03%2.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3713.368.01
Cash Retained (M)72.9772.9772.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.37-13.36-8.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.6059.6164.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.0515.0515.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.433.964.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.252.252.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.433.964.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.686.216.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$167.38$256.45$446.84
Upside / Downside171.33%315.70%624.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.86113.80121.20129.08137.47146.40150.79
Payout Ratio31.71%43.37%55.03%66.68%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.8949.3566.6986.07107.69131.76139.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.8245.2545.67
Year 2 PV (M)55.0056.0557.11
Year 3 PV (M)64.4766.3268.20
Year 4 PV (M)73.2576.0778.97
Year 5 PV (M)81.3985.3289.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,417.121,485.571,556.64
Equity Value (M)1,736.051,814.571,895.99
Shares Outstanding (M)15.0515.0515.05
Fair Value$115.35$120.57$125.98
Upside / Downside86.99%95.44%104.21%

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