Definitive Analysis
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Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.24 - $11.85$10.00
Multi-Stage$13.04 - $14.34$13.68
Blended Fair Value$11.84
Current Price$19.77
Upside-40.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.060.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---84.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.04%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.746.714.03
Cash Retained (M)46.8346.8346.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.74-6.71-4.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.1040.1242.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.0546.0546.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.870.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.870.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.24$10.00$11.85
Upside / Downside-58.34%-49.41%-40.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53.6953.1552.6252.1051.5851.0652.59
Payout Ratio12.77%28.22%43.66%59.11%74.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.8615.0022.9830.7938.4545.9548.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.6113.7513.89
Year 2 PV (M)18.9219.3019.70
Year 3 PV (M)23.0023.7124.44
Year 4 PV (M)26.0627.1428.26
Year 5 PV (M)28.2629.7331.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)490.61516.16542.76
Equity Value (M)600.46629.80660.31
Shares Outstanding (M)46.0546.0546.05
Fair Value$13.04$13.68$14.34
Upside / Downside-34.05%-30.83%-27.48%

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