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Associated Capital Group, Inc. (AC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.95 - $25.84$21.80
Multi-Stage$31.51 - $34.47$32.96
Blended Fair Value$27.38
Current Price$37.50
Upside-26.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS59.61%0.00%2.210.210.210.210.320.210.220.220.120.00
YoY Growth--975.70%-1.27%-0.34%-34.23%48.81%-3.28%-2.14%90.42%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.75%0.63%0.56%0.50%0.88%0.70%0.55%0.60%0.33%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.766.724.03
Cash Retained (M)7.037.037.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.76-6.72-4.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.730.302.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.2021.2021.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.180.010.14
LTM Dividend per Share2.212.212.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.180.010.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.032.222.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.95$21.80$25.84
Upside / Downside-52.14%-41.87%-31.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53.7853.2452.7052.1851.6651.1452.67
Payout Ratio86.94%87.55%88.16%88.77%89.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.7546.6146.4746.3246.1746.0348.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)42.3042.7343.16
Year 2 PV (M)38.2739.0539.84
Year 3 PV (M)34.6235.6936.78
Year 4 PV (M)31.3232.6133.95
Year 5 PV (M)28.3329.8031.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)493.24518.93545.67
Equity Value (M)668.07698.82730.75
Shares Outstanding (M)21.2021.2021.20
Fair Value$31.51$32.96$34.47
Upside / Downside-15.96%-12.10%-8.08%

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