Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xi'an Manareco New Materials Co.,Ltd (688550.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$170.56 - $396.32$371.41
Multi-Stage$58.34 - $63.87$61.05
Blended Fair Value$216.23
Current Price$50.45
Upside328.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.14%16.52%0.470.680.690.460.070.330.170.180.100.19
YoY Growth---30.95%-2.30%49.85%591.35%-79.80%92.04%-4.67%72.14%-44.30%86.12%
Dividend Yield--1.19%2.45%2.30%1.22%0.21%0.66%0.34%0.36%0.21%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)347.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)245.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.4543.4026.04
Cash Retained (M)245.22245.22245.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.45-43.40-26.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)175.77201.82219.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)174.24174.24174.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.161.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.161.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.591.741.84
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$170.56$371.41$396.32
Upside / Downside238.09%636.20%685.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)347.23369.80393.84419.44446.70475.74490.01
Payout Ratio29.38%41.50%53.63%65.75%77.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.01153.48211.21275.79347.87428.16453.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)142.78144.13145.48
Year 2 PV (M)182.78186.26189.77
Year 3 PV (M)222.03228.40234.89
Year 4 PV (M)260.53270.55280.86
Year 5 PV (M)298.31312.71327.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,058.529,496.059,950.33
Equity Value (M)10,164.9410,638.1111,129.01
Shares Outstanding (M)174.24174.24174.24
Fair Value$58.34$61.05$63.87
Upside / Downside15.64%21.02%26.60%

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