Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kunshan GuoLi Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (688103.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.65 - $128.01$119.96
Multi-Stage$82.52 - $90.56$86.46
Blended Fair Value$103.21
Current Price$73.49
Upside40.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.12%17.66%0.250.270.320.010.140.030.040.030.150.05
YoY Growth---10.24%-13.49%6,086.07%-96.21%318.49%-23.36%40.66%-80.65%201.88%5.91%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.70%0.53%0.01%0.18%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.307.694.61
Cash Retained (M)43.6843.6843.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.30-7.69-4.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.3936.0039.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.60
WACC / Discount Rate0.04%0.04%0.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$108.65$119.96$128.01
Upside / Downside47.84%63.23%74.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.4965.4969.7574.2879.1184.2586.78
Payout Ratio28.96%41.17%53.37%65.58%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.8126.9637.2348.7161.5475.8280.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.04%0.04%0.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26.7026.9527.20
Year 2 PV (M)36.5037.2037.90
Year 3 PV (M)47.3048.6550.04
Year 4 PV (M)59.1661.4463.78
Year 5 PV (M)72.1875.6779.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,641.298,010.378,393.57
Equity Value (M)7,883.138,260.278,651.77
Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
Fair Value$82.52$86.46$90.56
Upside / Downside12.28%17.65%23.23%

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