Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (688018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.24 - $50.43$41.32
Multi-Stage$67.13 - $73.96$70.47
Blended Fair Value$55.90
Current Price$216.86
Upside-74.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.640.001.060.330.570.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%221.68%-42.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.00%1.67%0.49%1.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)464.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)395.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.9958.1234.87
Cash Retained (M)395.73395.73395.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.99-58.12-34.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)302.74337.61360.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.97121.97121.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.482.772.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.482.772.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.053.343.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$33.24$41.32$50.43
Upside / Downside-84.67%-80.95%-76.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)464.97460.32455.72451.16446.65442.18455.45
Payout Ratio14.89%29.91%44.93%59.96%74.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.24137.69204.77270.50334.89397.97421.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)127.40128.70130.00
Year 2 PV (M)175.29178.89182.52
Year 3 PV (M)214.24220.86227.62
Year 4 PV (M)245.40255.57266.05
Year 5 PV (M)269.81283.85298.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,155.487,528.097,916.05
Equity Value (M)8,187.618,595.959,020.72
Shares Outstanding (M)121.97121.97121.97
Fair Value$67.13$70.47$73.96
Upside / Downside-69.05%-67.50%-65.90%

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