Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Join Buy Co.,Ltd. (600838.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.28 - $19.21$17.99
Multi-Stage$175.85 - $194.82$185.14
Blended Fair Value$101.57
Current Price$8.44
Upside1,103.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.66%-3.76%0.050.040.080.040.070.070.070.140.070.03
YoY Growth--17.63%-48.05%92.50%-46.67%1.35%1.39%-46.73%95.74%112.10%-52.20%
Dividend Yield--0.58%0.60%1.12%0.56%1.15%1.16%0.93%1.43%0.45%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.575.353.21
Cash Retained (M)23.9723.9723.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.57-5.35-3.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.4018.6220.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)405.55405.55405.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.10
WACC / Discount Rate-45.45%-45.45%-45.45%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Fair Value$16.28$17.99$19.21
Upside / Downside92.87%113.14%127.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.8341.6940.5739.4938.4337.4038.52
Payout Ratio44.04%53.23%62.42%71.61%80.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.8622.1925.3328.2831.0533.6635.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-45.45%-45.45%-45.45%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Year 1 PV (M)40.2640.6741.09
Year 2 PV (M)83.3585.0986.85
Year 3 PV (M)168.85174.16179.58
Year 4 PV (M)336.39350.57365.21
Year 5 PV (M)661.50696.56733.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,027.1373,738.3877,605.34
Equity Value (M)71,317.4775,085.4479,011.16
Shares Outstanding (M)405.55405.55405.55
Fair Value$175.85$185.14$194.82
Upside / Downside1,983.56%2,093.64%2,208.33%

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