Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sichuan Golden Summit (group) Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (600678.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.64 - $1.07$0.82
Multi-Stage$2.00 - $2.20$2.10
Blended Fair Value$1.46
Current Price$9.22
Upside-84.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.00%0.31%0.060.050.040.060.050.060.060.030.050.05
YoY Growth--5.81%36.60%-37.29%14.17%-8.09%3.77%90.04%-37.22%-7.47%-5.31%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.74%0.69%0.86%0.91%0.92%0.79%0.29%0.34%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.812.381.43
Cash Retained (M)4.364.364.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.81-2.38-1.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.551.982.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)348.88348.88348.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate5.06%5.06%5.06%
Growth Rate-1.69%-0.69%0.31%
Fair Value$0.64$0.82$1.07
Upside / Downside-93.11%-91.06%-88.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.0318.9018.7718.6418.5218.3918.94
Payout Ratio77.10%79.68%82.26%84.84%87.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.6815.0615.4415.8216.1916.5517.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.06%5.06%5.06%
Growth Rate-1.69%-0.69%0.31%
Year 1 PV (M)14.1914.3414.48
Year 2 PV (M)13.7113.9914.27
Year 3 PV (M)13.2313.6414.06
Year 4 PV (M)12.7613.2913.83
Year 5 PV (M)12.2912.9313.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)630.46663.18697.25
Equity Value (M)696.64731.36767.48
Shares Outstanding (M)348.88348.88348.88
Fair Value$2.00$2.10$2.20
Upside / Downside-78.34%-77.26%-76.14%

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