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Hua Xia Bank Co., Limited (600015.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.13 - $338.91$258.75
Multi-Stage$43.54 - $47.61$45.54
Blended Fair Value$152.14
Current Price$6.58
Upside2,212.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.63%13.64%0.990.960.880.800.680.540.440.310.300.31
YoY Growth--2.96%9.10%9.91%18.03%24.39%22.98%44.34%2.56%-4.17%13.59%
Dividend Yield--12.60%14.61%16.33%14.37%10.51%8.41%5.24%3.44%3.18%3.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,147.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,510.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,637.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,429.403,393.382,036.03
Cash Retained (M)13,637.0013,637.0013,637.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,429.40-3,393.38-2,036.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,207.6010,243.6311,600.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,914.9815,914.9815,914.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.640.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.640.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Fair Value$89.13$258.75$338.91
Upside / Downside1,254.52%3,832.34%5,050.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,147.0028,884.2530,732.6732,699.3834,791.9537,018.4338,128.98
Payout Ratio49.77%57.81%65.86%73.91%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,510.0016,698.8120,240.4324,166.9528,513.1233,316.5935,269.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)15,457.7915,604.4515,751.11
Year 2 PV (M)17,343.7617,674.4318,008.22
Year 3 PV (M)19,169.3419,720.1520,281.42
Year 4 PV (M)20,935.9221,741.8322,570.79
Year 5 PV (M)22,644.8523,739.6724,876.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)597,337.88626,217.58656,203.64
Equity Value (M)692,889.55724,698.12757,691.61
Shares Outstanding (M)15,914.9815,914.9815,914.98
Fair Value$43.54$45.54$47.61
Upside / Downside561.66%592.03%623.54%

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