Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sumitomo Pharma Co., Ltd. (4506.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,066.30 - $2,839.45$2,456.87
Multi-Stage$4,002.40 - $4,422.82$4,208.33
Blended Fair Value$3,332.60
Current Price$1,711.00
Upside94.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-81.30%-54.05%0.017.0328.0028.0027.9932.9927.9920.0018.0018.00
YoY Growth---99.89%-74.90%-0.01%0.05%-15.15%17.84%40.01%11.09%-0.01%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.80%4.38%2.57%1.20%2.21%1.32%0.85%1.17%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154,723.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)154,720.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30,944.6019,340.3811,604.23
Cash Retained (M)154,720.00154,720.00154,720.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-30,944.60-19,340.38-11,604.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)123,775.40135,379.63143,115.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.29397.29397.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share311.55340.76360.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share311.55340.76360.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend311.56340.77360.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate-5.75%-4.75%-3.75%
Fair Value$2,066.30$2,456.87$2,839.45
Upside / Downside20.77%43.59%65.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154,723.00147,379.16140,383.89133,720.65127,373.67121,327.95124,967.79
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.0026,530.5350,539.8372,210.1991,709.54109,195.15115,595.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate-5.75%-4.75%-3.75%
Year 1 PV (M)24,203.1824,459.9624,716.75
Year 2 PV (M)42,061.6742,958.9343,865.65
Year 3 PV (M)54,824.8656,588.4658,389.48
Year 4 PV (M)63,521.3866,260.3569,086.96
Year 5 PV (M)68,997.7872,736.5076,635.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,336,503.401,408,923.251,484,448.94
Equity Value (M)1,590,112.271,671,927.461,757,143.35
Shares Outstanding (M)397.29397.29397.29
Fair Value$4,002.40$4,208.33$4,422.82
Upside / Downside133.92%145.96%158.49%

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