Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hansong (nanjing) (301491.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.21 - $25.78$21.95
Multi-Stage$26.30 - $28.93$27.59
Blended Fair Value$24.77
Current Price$69.37
Upside-64.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.010.031.445.450.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.79%-63.28%-98.26%-73.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)223.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.8228.0116.81
Cash Retained (M)223.31223.31223.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.82-28.01-16.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)178.49195.30206.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.4780.4780.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.222.432.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.222.432.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.232.442.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.21$21.95$25.78
Upside / Downside-73.75%-68.36%-62.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.11221.87219.65217.46215.28213.13219.52
Payout Ratio0.36%18.29%36.21%54.14%72.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.8040.5779.55117.74155.16191.82203.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)36.5136.8937.26
Year 2 PV (M)64.4365.7567.08
Year 3 PV (M)85.8288.4791.18
Year 4 PV (M)101.78106.00110.35
Year 5 PV (M)113.24119.14125.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,714.241,803.501,896.44
Equity Value (M)2,116.022,219.752,327.60
Shares Outstanding (M)80.4780.4780.47
Fair Value$26.30$27.59$28.93
Upside / Downside-62.09%-60.23%-58.30%

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