Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product Co., Ltd. (300952.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.38 - $125.34$117.46
Multi-Stage$25.96 - $28.44$27.18
Blended Fair Value$72.32
Current Price$30.70
Upside135.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS85.33%0.00%0.270.200.110.210.010.010.211.000.000.00
YoY Growth--39.55%74.38%-47.84%1,401.64%14.71%-94.02%-79.15%67,884.69%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.99%0.59%1.21%0.04%0.02%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8913.067.83
Cash Retained (M)72.9572.9572.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.89-13.06-7.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.0659.9065.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)165.74165.74165.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$106.38$117.46$125.34
Upside / Downside246.53%282.61%308.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.45111.24118.47126.18134.38143.11147.40
Payout Ratio30.16%42.13%54.09%66.06%78.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.5046.8664.0983.35104.86128.80136.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.0044.4144.83
Year 2 PV (M)56.4957.5658.65
Year 3 PV (M)68.9870.9672.98
Year 4 PV (M)81.4784.6087.82
Year 5 PV (M)93.9598.49103.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,957.274,148.414,346.86
Equity Value (M)4,302.154,504.434,714.34
Shares Outstanding (M)165.74165.74165.74
Fair Value$25.96$27.18$28.44
Upside / Downside-15.45%-11.47%-7.35%

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