Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xi'an Triangle Defense Co.,Ltd (300775.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.53 - $90.74$43.58
Multi-Stage$16.78 - $18.36$17.55
Blended Fair Value$30.57
Current Price$24.77
Upside23.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.39%17.29%0.230.120.090.070.090.090.000.000.010.03
YoY Growth--90.86%35.09%21.82%-17.00%1.10%0.00%-100.00%-93.30%-80.38%-40.38%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.50%0.26%0.18%0.32%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)532.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)482.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.5266.5839.95
Cash Retained (M)482.96482.96482.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.52-66.58-39.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.43416.38443.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)555.21555.21555.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.53$43.58$90.74
Upside / Downside7.13%75.94%266.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)532.62567.24604.11643.38685.20729.73751.63
Payout Ratio9.32%25.46%41.59%57.73%73.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.66144.42251.28371.42506.12656.76695.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)131.79133.04134.29
Year 2 PV (M)209.26213.25217.27
Year 3 PV (M)282.27290.38298.63
Year 4 PV (M)351.01364.51378.40
Year 5 PV (M)415.67435.74456.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,926.638,309.488,707.00
Equity Value (M)9,316.639,746.4010,192.18
Shares Outstanding (M)555.21555.21555.21
Fair Value$16.78$17.55$18.36
Upside / Downside-32.26%-29.13%-25.89%

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