Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd. (300394.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.89 - $223.03$115.06
Multi-Stage$47.54 - $51.94$49.70
Blended Fair Value$82.38
Current Price$167.80
Upside-50.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.56%44.87%1.010.300.240.200.120.110.090.090.060.06
YoY Growth--241.28%25.67%20.66%63.61%11.11%20.40%0.00%42.86%12.00%124.62%
Dividend Yield--1.67%0.36%0.89%1.38%1.02%0.97%0.94%1.61%0.75%0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,832.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)554.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,277.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)366.49229.05137.43
Cash Retained (M)1,277.891,277.891,277.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-366.49-229.05-137.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)911.401,048.841,140.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)667.13667.13667.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.371.571.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.371.571.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.202.402.54
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.89$115.06$223.03
Upside / Downside-57.16%-31.43%32.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,832.431,951.542,078.392,213.492,357.362,510.592,585.91
Payout Ratio30.26%42.21%54.16%66.11%78.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)554.54823.751,125.611,463.231,839.982,259.532,391.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)750.53757.64764.76
Year 2 PV (M)934.41952.20970.17
Year 3 PV (M)1,106.711,138.481,170.86
Year 4 PV (M)1,267.981,316.741,366.90
Year 5 PV (M)1,418.711,487.231,558.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,234.9127,502.0628,817.72
Equity Value (M)31,713.2533,154.3734,648.78
Shares Outstanding (M)667.13667.13667.13
Fair Value$47.54$49.70$51.94
Upside / Downside-71.67%-70.38%-69.05%

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