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Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (1551.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.93 - $2.65$2.29
Multi-Stage$5.26 - $5.80$5.53
Blended Fair Value$3.91
Current Price$1.43
Upside173.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.73%-4.83%0.100.090.090.150.150.150.150.130.130.18
YoY Growth--3.34%0.00%-38.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%20.30%0.00%-28.57%12.00%
Dividend Yield--6.32%4.67%3.99%5.43%5.16%4.65%3.40%2.48%2.76%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,838.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,847.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,990.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)967.67604.80362.88
Cash Retained (M)1,990.851,990.851,990.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-967.67-604.80-362.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,023.181,386.061,627.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,942.6912,942.6912,942.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-7.34%-6.34%-5.34%
Fair Value$1.93$2.29$2.65
Upside / Downside34.99%60.42%85.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,838.374,531.534,244.143,974.993,722.903,486.803,591.40
Payout Ratio58.85%65.08%71.31%77.54%83.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,847.512,949.223,026.573,082.253,118.693,138.123,322.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-7.34%-6.34%-5.34%
Year 1 PV (M)2,726.512,755.942,785.36
Year 2 PV (M)2,586.742,642.872,699.61
Year 3 PV (M)2,435.402,515.102,596.53
Year 4 PV (M)2,278.122,378.072,481.27
Year 5 PV (M)2,119.212,236.062,358.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,901.5958,983.9562,200.81
Equity Value (M)68,047.5671,512.0075,121.60
Shares Outstanding (M)12,942.6912,942.6912,942.69
Fair Value$5.26$5.53$5.80
Upside / Downside267.66%286.38%305.89%

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