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The Mosaic Company (0K3B.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.30 - $52.01$42.63
Multi-Stage$48.40 - $53.10$50.71
Blended Fair Value$46.67
Current Price$34.68
Upside34.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.14%-3.40%0.851.100.620.330.240.210.120.661.211.21
YoY Growth---23.01%77.85%90.65%36.81%12.80%74.55%-81.72%-45.31%0.10%0.58%
Dividend Yield--3.15%3.40%1.35%0.49%0.75%1.95%0.43%2.72%4.14%4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,229.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)277.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)952.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.84153.6592.19
Cash Retained (M)952.20952.20952.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.84-153.65-92.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)706.36798.55860.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)318.65318.65318.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.222.512.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.222.512.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.093.383.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$34.30$42.63$52.01
Upside / Downside-1.08%22.93%49.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,229.201,242.441,255.821,269.351,283.031,296.851,335.75
Payout Ratio22.53%36.03%49.52%63.01%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)277.00447.63621.90799.87981.601,167.161,235.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)406.31410.37414.43
Year 2 PV (M)512.38522.67533.06
Year 3 PV (M)598.18616.29634.76
Year 4 PV (M)666.32693.36721.20
Year 5 PV (M)719.14755.80793.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,521.2613,159.4613,823.43
Equity Value (M)15,423.5816,157.9416,920.82
Shares Outstanding (M)318.65318.65318.65
Fair Value$48.40$50.71$53.10
Upside / Downside39.57%46.22%53.12%

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