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Dongyue Group Limited (0189.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.57 - $18.60$14.74
Multi-Stage$25.32 - $27.83$26.55
Blended Fair Value$20.65
Current Price$9.56
Upside115.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.08%0.83%0.080.650.340.130.230.510.310.160.000.08
YoY Growth---87.00%91.39%153.89%-42.47%-54.02%62.10%97.57%0.00%-100.00%5.88%
Dividend Yield--1.11%12.75%4.50%1.36%4.52%13.16%8.82%3.49%0.00%5.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,013.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,352.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)661.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)402.79251.74151.04
Cash Retained (M)661.71661.71661.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-402.79-251.74-151.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)258.92409.97510.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,833.291,833.291,833.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.220.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.220.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-1.17%-0.17%0.83%
Fair Value$11.57$14.74$18.60
Upside / Downside20.99%54.22%94.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,013.932,010.432,006.942,003.461,999.981,996.512,056.40
Payout Ratio67.14%71.71%76.29%80.86%85.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,352.221,441.781,531.021,619.941,708.561,796.861,902.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-1.17%-0.17%0.83%
Year 1 PV (M)1,342.301,355.881,369.47
Year 2 PV (M)1,327.041,354.031,381.29
Year 3 PV (M)1,307.241,347.331,388.22
Year 4 PV (M)1,283.621,336.371,390.73
Year 5 PV (M)1,256.821,321.701,389.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,895.4941,955.2244,099.15
Equity Value (M)46,412.5148,670.5351,018.11
Shares Outstanding (M)1,833.291,833.291,833.29
Fair Value$25.32$26.55$27.83
Upside / Downside164.82%177.70%191.10%

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