Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Namyang Dairy Products Co., Ltd (003920.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16,083.58 - $22,842.48$19,414.24
Multi-Stage$29,549.25 - $32,584.23$31,036.51
Blended Fair Value$25,225.37
Current Price$64,300.00
Upside-60.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.80%0.40%102.6598.7198.5798.5898.6198.6698.6298.6198.6198.60
YoY Growth--3.99%0.14%0.00%-0.03%-0.05%0.04%0.01%0.00%0.01%0.01%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.18%0.18%0.25%0.33%0.34%0.17%0.15%0.12%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,385.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)835.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,549.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,277.082,673.171,603.90
Cash Retained (M)20,549.4120,549.4120,549.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,277.08-2,673.17-1,603.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)16,272.3317,876.2318,945.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.678.678.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,877.342,062.382,185.75
LTM Dividend per Share96.4596.4596.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,877.342,062.382,185.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,973.792,158.832,282.19
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate-3.56%-2.56%-1.56%
Fair Value$16,083.58$19,414.24$22,842.48
Upside / Downside-74.99%-69.81%-64.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,385.4020,837.5020,303.6419,783.4519,276.6018,782.7319,346.21
Payout Ratio3.91%21.13%38.35%55.56%72.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)835.994,402.417,785.5310,992.4114,029.8616,904.4517,895.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate-3.56%-2.56%-1.56%
Year 1 PV (M)4,024.304,066.034,107.76
Year 2 PV (M)6,505.616,641.236,778.25
Year 3 PV (M)8,396.408,660.318,929.70
Year 4 PV (M)9,796.1010,208.7810,634.36
Year 5 PV (M)10,789.4911,360.6111,955.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)216,613.65228,079.71240,026.26
Equity Value (M)256,125.54269,016.67282,431.99
Shares Outstanding (M)8.678.678.67
Fair Value$29,549.25$31,036.51$32,584.23
Upside / Downside-54.04%-51.73%-49.32%

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